/ 15 July 2022

Our economic/COVID roller coaster ride

Image source: iStock
Image source: iStock

THE SQUIZ
Our unemployment rate hit the lowest level recorded since August 1974 – the last time they were this low, Oz had just changed its road signs from imperial to metric… The June figures were released yesterday by the Bureau of Stats, and unemployment’s at 3.5%, down from 3.9%. Digging in a bit more, the unemployment rate for women is 3.4% – the lowest since February 1974, and for blokes, it’s the lowest since May 1976 at 3.6%. “The large fall in the unemployment rate this month reflects more people than usual entering employment and also lower than usual numbers of employed people becoming unemployed,” said Bjorn Jarvis from the ABS. There were 88,000 more people in jobs in June than in May.

THAT’S GREAT, YES?
Having more people in work is fab. But finding workers is more challenging than getting a Big Mac in Fiji… To put some numbers around it, Jarvis says there’s “around one unemployed person per vacant job, compared with 3 times as many people before the start of the pandemic.” There are downsides to that. First, some businesses have been forced to restrict their operations, and that’s a drag on economic growth, which is what you need to create more jobs. And 2nd: beware the potential impact of ‘full employment’ on inflation and interest rate increases. Long story short, a tight jobs market leads to higher wages. That leads to greater spending/increased demand, which adds to the rise in prices. We’re not the only ones dealing with this, but get prepared for more interest rate increases…

RIGHT. ANYTHING ELSE?
Just that COVID continues to cause so many problems… Workplaces across the economy are not just struggling with finding workers – they’re struggling to keep the ones they have on the tools. And despite saying no thanks earlier this week, PM Anthony Albanese last night agreed to hold a National Cabinet meeting on Monday to discuss concerns over the trajectory of new cases. They also want to talk about changes to federal supports after his government backed the ending of the pandemic leave payment of up to $750 for workers who are forced to isolate but don’t have sick leave. Several of Albanese’s colleagues want him to reinstate it ASAP. They will also talk about the axing of free RAT tests for concessions card holders. Many are concerned that as cases are rising again, remaining supports are coming off – but the new government says it’s worried about the state of the Budget.

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