Squiz Today – Monday, 13 May

SQUIZ SAYINGS

“It’s no surprise she named her new baby Archie. She loved that cat.”

Said an unnamed “former close friend” of the Duchess of Sussex, Meghan Markle, who says she and mother Doria had a cat that went by the name. Seems legit…

---

FIVE SLEEPS TO POLLING DAY...

THE SQUIZ
In a sneak peek at what Saturday’s result is shaping up to be, The Australian’s Newspoll has the Coalition improving, but not enough to hold off a Labor win.

GIVE ME THE DETAILS…
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads 51:49, the same as the last two polls. Both the Coalition and Labor improved their primary votes by one point to 39 for the Coalition and 37 for Labor. Losing support on that front was One Nation and independent candidates. Both One Nation and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party are on 4% of primary votes setting up some close races, particularly in Queensland. And Labor leader Bill Shorten received a four-point bump in his satisfaction ratings after a week that featured the Daily Telegraph's story on his mother's life and times. PM Scott Morrison leads the preferred PM race 45:38.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
That we’re in for a fast and furious last week of the campaign as the Coalition tries to get enough marginal seat voters to tip in its favour, and Labor looks to lock down support. Polling in marginal seats shows the Coalition is set to pick up the marginal seats of Lindsay in Sydney’s west and Herbert in far north Queensland. However, Labor is on track to retain Bass in Tassie and win Corangamite in Victoria (which has a Liberal MP but is notionally Labor’s after a boundary change). And a warning: if political ads aren’t your thing you might like to put a blindfold on and earbuds in - reports say we’re in for a $10 million ad blitz, particularly from the United Australia Party, this week.

---

SQUIZ THE REST

---

BOTCHED POLICE RAID LEAVES MAN BADLY INJURED

There were calls last night for an independent inquiry into a raid by Victorian Police that left a man they mistook for a carjacker with a badly broken arm. Witnesses say police did not identify themselves when they raided an apartment adjoining LGBT community bookshop in Fitzroy in the early hours of Sunday morning. The bookshop's co-owners said Nik Dimopoulos thought it was a home invasion and fled the apartment. But he was arrested on the street, and the store owners say his injuries were so bad he could lose the use of his arm. Police said the arrest was a case of mistaken identity and "acknowledge the distress this situation has caused the victim”.

---

MUSK DEFAMATION TRIAL TO PROCEED

Tesla founder and occasional loose cannon Elon Musk will need to defend himself in defamation proceedings brought by one of the Thai cave rescue divers. Musk had his people work on a rescue submarine that could bring the trapped boys out through the Tham Luang caves. British rescue adviser Vern Unsworth pointed out the design’s failings and said Musk was engaging in a PR stunt. Musk hit back over Twitter calling him something that definitely won’t get past your email security filter, although he did apologise and remove the tweets only to arc up again later last year. So off to court they go with a 22 October trial date set. Unsworth is seeking at least US$75,000 in compensation plus punitive damages.

---

UBER IPO FAILS TO DRIVE SUPPORT

Speaking of trouble for the disruptors… Uber's public float didn’t exactly get the reception it would have wanted. In fact, reports are calling it the worst launch on the New York Stock Exchange for a big company name in at least a decade. Its price was set at $45 a share on Thursday, and it finished its first day of trading on Friday down 7.6% to $41.57. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi initially said the result was tied up with a bad day across the market given the troublesome US-China trade deal. But when the market closed up 2% for the day, it was like trying to hide on the backseat of a VW Golf. Which is to say there was nowhere to hide… Experts say it was the most anticipated IPO since Facebook seven years ago and the market is having a problem settling on the rideshare company’s valuation.

---

CHINA/US TRADE TALKS ALSO STALL

"They were constructive discussions between both parties, that's all we are gonna say. Thank you," said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin of Friday's talks with high-level Chinese officials. The new negotiations didn't overcome the breakdown in attempts to forge a new trade deal between the world’s two biggest economies. And there doesn’t seem to be a lot of bonhomie on the horizon with US President Donald Trump announcing his determination to more than double tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The Washington Post says Trump’s approach is about “putting the rest of the world on notice that he will follow through on his protectionist agenda no matter the blowback.”

---

FOLAU REVEALS “TEMPTATION” TO DELETE POSTS

As his rugby career hangs in the balance, Wallaby Israel Folau spoke at a church service in north-western Sydney and revealed how tempted he was to delete the social media posts that have put him in hot water. "The way Satan works is he offers you stuff that could look good to the eye and makes you feel comfortable, and if you follow that path all the worries and troubles will go away. (But) it is always the will of God that comes first," he said. Fellow rugby players of Polynesian descent have expressed their disquiet at the situation Folau is in with Rugby's administrators. The tribunal could announce Folau’s sanction this week.

---

JUDGY WUDGY WAS A BEAR...

There was a bit said last week about the Aeroflot flight that was engulfed by flames after a rough landing in Moscow and the fact that some passengers grabbed their luggage, slowing the escape of others from the burning plane. So this is an interesting read about why someone would put their own life in danger, as well as the lives of others, to collect their belongings. Experts say we shouldn’t be judgemental. “I don’t think we should think of it as a decision when they grab their stuff. I think we should think about it as an impulse,” said one.

SQUIZ THE DAY

ABS Data Release - Lending to households and businesses, March; Overseas Arrivals and Departures, March

Midterm Elections in the Philippines

National Law Week

Anniversary of Arthur Phillip leaves Portsmouth, England with 11 ships of criminals bound for Botany Bay (1787)

Stevie Wonder’s birthday (1950)

Anniversary of the death of Ruth Cracknell (2002)