THE SQUIZ
China has mostly wrapped up 4 days of military exercises that Taiwan says were a rehearsal of an attack on the island. Chinese ships and planes have practised drills in the Taiwan Strait, with some crossing the median line (an unofficial buffer separating the 2 sides). In response, Taiwan dispatched air and naval patrols around the island and activated its land-based missile systems. The weekend’s activities followed Friday’s test launches of ballistic missiles over the island’s capital – something China had not done before. And Beijing has cut communications with Washington DC by cancelling upcoming talks and suspending joint efforts to tackle transnational crime and climate change. It’s also sanctioned US Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose visit to Taiwan last week was the spark that set tensions alight.

HOW ARE NATIONS REACTING?
Our Foreign Minister Penny Wong joined her American and Japanese counterparts in condemning China’s actions – they were together this weekend at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers’ gathering in Cambodia. They said the exercises were “disproportionate and destabilising”, with Wong adding that “Australia shares the region’s concerns about this escalating military activity, especially the risks of miscalculation.” She also said that Australia doesn’t want to see a change to how things have been with Taiwan peacefully doing its own thing while nations like ours observe the “one-China policy”. That is, we don’t officially recognise Taiwan as a nation out of respect for China’s claim to the “breakaway province”. As for the US (which is walking a fine line after Pelosi’s visit…), Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he doesn’t want to see any further escalation.

AND WHAT DOESN’T CHINA SAY?
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed the finger at the US for the flare-up in tensions. “We wish to issue a warning to the United States: Do not act rashly, do not create a greater crisis,” he said at a rare press conference on Friday. And China’s embassy in Canberra also fired back, saying that it is “absolutely unacceptable for the finger-pointing on China’s justified actions to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity” and that “the Australian side has condemned the victim” in the sorry saga. As for where things go next, China has promised “more countermeasures”. And analysts say with so many Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese and US warplanes and navy ships in the region, there is a high risk of an accident escalating into real conflict. Watch this space…