THE SQUIZ
Voters in Melbourne’s east made history on Saturday, turfing out the Liberals’ candidate Roshena Campbell in the Aston byelection with Labor’s Mary Doyle taking the seat with a 6.4% swing. The last time the government won a seat held by the opposition in a byelection was 1920 – and that was brought on by Labor MP Hugh Mahon being expelled from the House of Reps after he made “seditious and disloyal utterances at a public meeting”. So you could say he was a bit on the nose… It means PM Anthony Albanese’s government now has 78 seats in the lower house – that’s a 2-seat majority – as the Coalition slips back to 57 in the 151-seat chamber.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
A lot of finger-pointing… Yesterday, Nationals leader David Littleproud said Labor’s campaign “stooped to a level that Australian politics shouldn’t” with its “personal character assassination” of Coalition leader Peter Dutton. He also pointed out that the Liberal candidate wasn’t from the electorate and accused the Victorian branch of the party of doing everything they could “to trash their own brand” with some nasty infighting in the final fortnight of the campaign. That theory was rejected yesterday by state party leader John Pesutto. Albanese has his own theory – he says Dutton’s approach is bringing himself and the party down. “He’s just saying no to everything and not being a part of any solution. He’s become an observer of Australian politics rather than a participant,” the PM said. For his part, Dutton says he takes responsibility for the defeat, but the “fundamentals” of the party would not change.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?
Cue renewed discussion about what the Liberals stand for and how they will shore up support because they are struggling in what has been their home grounds. These days, the Liberals hold 14 urban electorates – 8 if you exclude those that don’t contain semi-rural areas. That’s down to the changing face and attitudes of Aussie voters, including more young people turning their backs on both major parties – and particularly the Liberals. That’s led to speculation Dutton could find himself the victim of a leadership spill if he doesn’t moderate the party’s approach on what he calls “trendy” issues. But he brushed that off yesterday, saying the result in Aston “makes me more determined to rebuild this party and be in a winning position by 2025.” That’s a tough ask – this morning’s Newspoll says support for the Coalition has dipped to a 6-month low, and Albanese has expended his lead over Dutton as preferred PM.