THE SQUIZ
While our federal politicians have been dealing with some meaty issues in Canberra ahead of the budget in May, eyes are now turning to the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. That’s not because donut fans are making an excursion to a bakery preferred by the former local member Alan Tudge… It’s because tomorrow is the byelection in his seat of Aston, and the focus is on whether the Liberals can hold it. Tudge held the seat with a small margin of 2.8%, and the Liberals are tipping a narrow win. And history’s in their corner – the last time a government took a seat off the opposition in a byelection was in 1920… 

WHY DOES IT MATTER?
It’s a good question, particularly if you don’t live in the electorate. The answer it’s not important in a numbers sense. Team Albanese has 77 seats in the House of Representatives – one more than is required to form a majority government. Meanwhile, the Coalition retaining or losing Aston doesn’t do much for their standing – with 58 seats, they are firmly occupying the opposition benches… But for the pundits, the byelection matters because it could tell us how voters rate the performance of the major party’s leaders. No longer playing the role of the plucky opposition leader that he successfully pulled off last election, PM Anthony Albanese’s now behind the steering wheel and responsible for real outcomes. As for Coalition leader Peter Dutton, it’s the first public vote he’s overseen as head of the party. So expect a lot of commentary about what the result says about and means for those 2 men.

AND WHAT ABOUT THE ISSUES?
You mean the little matter of policies and that sort of stuff? Road upgrades and the cost of living are among the issues to feature heavily in the campaigns of Labor’s Mary Doyle and Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell because Aston is classic commuter/mortgage-belt territory. According to the Bureau of Stats, 41% of residents have a mortgage (higher than the national average), and many will be feeling the pinch of interest rate rises. So there’s that… Many voters will also have a view about the issues of the day, like AUKUS/nuclear submarines, the Voice referendum, and Labor’s climate policy that received support from the Greens this week. And there’s another issue that’s on some voters’ radar: the Victorian Libs have been melting down over state MP Moira Deeming’s anti-trans rally, which attracted a very nasty crowd. Insert the popcorn emoji and let the chips fall where they may (but don’t drop your chips, they’re delicious…).