/ 23 May 2022

The winner takes it all – almost…

Image source: AAP
Image source: AAP

THE SQUIZ
Wow-wee that federal election sure was something… Labor under leader Anthony Albanese is on track to form a majority government. That saw outgoing PM Scott Morrison concede defeat on Saturday night and resign as leader of the Liberals. “I’ve always believed in Australians and their judgment, and I’ve always been prepared to accept their verdicts,” he said. As for Albanese, he said he was “ready to serve” and “I want to seek our common purpose and promote unity and optimism, not fear and division.”

WHAT HAPPENED? 
●  It’s projected that Labor will win 77 seats – one more than the required 76 seats to run the show without support from the crossbench. It looks like Labor has picked up 10 seats from the Liberals but they also lost a couple – one to a non-Teal independent in southwest Sydney (ending former NSW premier Kristina Keneally’s dream of entering the lower house), and another to the Greens in the Brisbane seat of Griffith. 

●  It’s predicted that the Coalition will lose 16-ish seats, including 2 to the Greens and 6 to the Teal independents. The Liberals have lost some notable people including (most likely…) Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and ministers Ken Wyatt, Ben Morton and Tim Wilson. The Nationals are set to hold all their seats.

●  And how about those Greens and Teals… The Greens are on track to claim 3 seats, up from 1. And the Climate200-aligned independents go from 2 to 8 after knocking over some previously safe Liberals. That means the crossbench is on track to include 15 MPs, up from 6 last term.

SO WHAT’S NEXT?
A lot of analysis… ‘Fractured’ was the word of the night because a lot is going on behind those results. For example, Western Australia saw a 10.8% 2-party preferred swing to Labor, while in Tassie, there was a 2.1% swing to the Coalition. And then there’s Morrison’s (un)popularity and the factors driving the rise of the Teals and the Green’s success. But what’s next in practical terms? Albanese will be sworn in today so he can sprint to Tokyo to high-5 the leaders of India, Japan and the US. And the Coalition will have to pick a new leader and frontbench, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, the count continues with a tonne of postal votes to get through to finalise the result.

Want to dig a bit deeper? Our last Squiz The Election podcast is out this morning… 

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