Taswegians are headed to the polls tomorrow to elect the 35 people who will represent them in the lower house of the state parliament – 10 more than before. There are a couple of things to note… First, the Liberal-led government is the last one standing on the Aussie political scene – if it’s defeated tomorrow, it will be wall-to-wall Labor from the federal to the state and territory governments. And second, it’s happening super early in Tassie’s electoral cycle with the vote not due until next year. At the heart of it: a huge row over the state’s plan to build a $715 million stadium in Hobart for their newly unveiled AFL team, the Tasmania Devils.

I know The Squiz enjoys an election…

Whatever gave you that idea? They’re only the best – and this one has quite the backstory… Premier Jeremy Rockliff called the election after 2 members of the Liberal Party defected and became independents, leaving him with a minority government. Lara Alexander and John Tucker quit over the expensive new footy ground, saying the money would be better spent on healthcare and housing. Initially, they agreed to support the government, but Rockliff says their “my way or the highway approach” made it too difficult to govern. He’s now under pressure to secure the 18 seats needed to reach a majority… On the other side is Labor leader Rebecca White – she’s all for Tassie getting an AFL team but anti-stadium and says if she wins, she will renegotiate with the AFL. For his part, AFL boss Andrew Dillon insists the stadium must be built, saying “that’s the agreement” and it can’t change.

So how does this play out? 

Dunno… The polls put the Liberals ahead of Labor, but there’s a strong chance neither major party will win a majority thanks to the state’s Hare Clark voting system (which only Antony Green understands…). In that case, they will need to negotiate with the Greens, independents, and the Jacqui Lambie Network. Lambie, who represents Tassie in the Senate, has refused to commit to doing a deal with the Liberals, accusing them of “shenanigans” over a fake website used to attack her. As for what Tasmanians care about, the polls show the top 3 issues are health care, cost of living pressures, and access to healthcare… The stadium ranked way down the list, with 55% of people saying it was “not at all important”. Come Saturday night, it’ll be time for someone to bust out a bottle of Tassie bubbles…

If you want to know more about Tasmania’s election, check out our latest Squiz Shortcut.