The Squiz

You’ve probably scrolled through a few Black Friday sale emails to get to us this morning, and despite the gloomy economic conditions, retailers are predicting record sales today and over the weekend heading into Cyber Monday. The Australian Retailers Association and market research firm Roy Morgan reckon Aussies will likely shell out $6.36 billion over the next 4 days, accounting for a quarter of all the forecast holiday shopping this year. That’s $188 million more than last year…

Who doesn’t love a shopping splurge?

The Reserve Bank… On Wednesday, Governor Michele Bullock said further interest rate hikes are likely if we can’t get a handle on inflation – which is currently at 5.4%. And following headlines last week that UK and US inflation has dropped sharply, Bullock said Australia’s sticky inflation situation is “homegrown and demand-driven”. She pointed to persistent demand for services that have seen strong price rises over the past year, including dentistry, haircuts, and eating out – the theory is those on high incomes are continuing to spend. To back that up, data from the Bureau of Stats shows many people – 1.2 million, in fact – have put off medical appointments in the past 12 months as cost-of-living pressures bite. Bullock said she’s regularly contacted by low-income Aussies and knows they’re struggling the most as they cut out essentials.

And don’t even start me on the cost of housing… 

Totes… Bullock says the rising cost of housing is also playing a role in our persistent inflation problem. Supporting that is data from CoreLogic’s Home Value Index showing we hit new house price records across the country yesterday. CoreLogic director Tim Lawless says it’s down to the age-old supply and demand issue – and Australia’s real estate market has a chronic supply shortage with listings down 16.6% on the previous 5-year average nationally. That has only bolstered calls for reforms to ensure we get more housing in the mix. And if you’re wondering what to expect from the RBA’s final meeting this year (put 5 December in your diary…), reports say the board will be focused on October’s inflation figures following their release next week. Experts reckon we’re unlikely to see another rate rise this year – but stay tuned for 2024…