THE SQUIZ
According to new official figures, Aussie wages are growing at the fastest rate in a decade. Between July and September, wages increased by 1%, taking annual growth to 3.1%, up from about 2.3% annually over the past 10 years. People in low-paid jobs saw the biggest increase, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers expects that to continue. Also positive was the latest consumer confidence data from Westpac that shows Aussies are feeling slightly more optimistic about the economy despite 6 months of interest rate rises. That might change next month when the Reserve Bank reconvenes to discuss another increase and what 2023 might hold… Wages growth and confidence are 2 significant domestic factors policymakers are keeping an eye on. And that’s before we look at what’s coming in from overseas…

WHAT’S HAPPENING ELSEWHERE?
Global economists are keeping an eye on China’s recovery after its harsh COVID lockdowns abruptly ended late last year. China’s quarterly data release shows its economy grew by 3% in 2022 – its worst result in 50 years. That’s well below the government’s target of 5.5% but above analysts’ forecasts. As for the here and now, the significant surge in COVID cases might slow Chinese consumer spending, which has a flow-on effect on other countries that trade with the superpower. And there’s China’s population decline – its first since 1961. Its headcount was down 850,000 last year, and experts say that trend has long-term implications for a country looking to become the biggest economy in the world.   

SOUNDS LIKE A BIT OF A ROLLERCOASTER…
Indeed. The state of the global economy – and concerns of a widespread recession – are on the table at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. The theme for this year’s gathering is “cooperation in a fragmented world”, but some attendees say it’s actually about war, the climate crisis, energy problems, inflation, famine, worsening inequality and political instability. Underlining that, Forum President Borge Brende says we’re experiencing “the most complex geopolitical and geoeconomic backdrop in decades”. So, just a bit of light chit-chat amongst the movers and shakers in attendance, then…