THE SQUIZ

Large parts of the country are in for higher-than-average bushfire risk when spring and summer hit this year. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) delivered its seasonal forecasts yesterday alongside the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The big concern is that much of Oz has had several years of above-average rainfall thanks to the La Niña that has resulted in excess vegetation (aka grass), and we’re set for the first dry spring/summer we’ve had since the 2019/20 Black Summer. We probably don’t have to tell you this, but lots of dry vegetation plus the forecast higher-than-average maximum temps equal some dicey conditions…

YIKES… SO WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?

The key thing to know is where the areas considered most at-risk are. Big parts of Queensland, NSW and the Northern Territory have been highlighted on authorities’ bushfire risk maps, while parts of South Oz and Victoria are on alert. But even if your area isn’t noted, most of the country is in for a dry spring, so AFAC boss Rob Webb says “wherever you live, work or travel, now is the time to plan and prepare” (and here’s a good explainer of how you can do that). As for the forecast, the BOM hasn’t officially declared an El Niño weather event, but an update’s due next Tuesday, along with the spring outlook. Yep, if you can believe it, it’s spring next week… Spoiler alert: the long-range outlook for September-November = warm/dry for most of the country.

AND WHAT’S HAPPENING ELSEWHERE?

We’ve talked before about the terrible summer for fires in the Northern Hemisphere, and in many places, it’s still a problem. In Greece, fires continue to burn with high winds and temperatures above 40C, making conditions difficult. Near its border with Turkey, 18 bodies were found yesterday after a fire ripped through the village of Avantas. In Hawaii, authorities are still trying to figure out how many people are missing following its deadly wildfires, and 115 deaths have been confirmed so far. And in Canada, new research points to the country’s record-breaking fire season being made worse by climate change. Melbourne Uni’s Dr Andrew King says the findings are consistent with scientists’ long-held expectations “that climate change will see worse and larger fires” here and abroad.