THE SQUIZ

What a way to start hot choccy season… Perth has had its heaviest rain in 5 years, and Adelaide was lashed by lightning as thunderstorms rolled across the state on Tuesday night. Those storms are now moving towards the east, with flood warnings for Victoria being issued. Across the board, Australia is seeing its warmest start to winter in more than a decade, which has some weather people scratching their heads. We knew there was an increased chance of moderate temperatures/dry conditions to start the cold season, but that’s not been the case so far.

WHAT ABOUT OVERSEAS?

The picture gets even weirder when you look at the rest of the world. Southeast Asia has been hit by a record heatwave over the past few weeks, with Laos and Vietnam setting temperature records. Thailand’s Bangkok got to 41C, the hottest it’s ever been – and we’d hate to imagine the humidity… One weather historian described the event as “the most brutal never-ending heatwave”. The Caribbean’s Haiti has experienced dramatic flooding over the last week, with thousands of homes washed away and at least 42 people killed. In the US, the state of Georgia lost 90% of its famous peach crop because of an unseasonably warm winter followed by a late-season frost. And we’re also seeing wildfires across almost all of Canada, with worse set to come in August. Bad news for the US cities that are already covered in the smoke that’s drifted south, including New York.

SO WHAT’S THE FORECAST?

An update on Tuesday from the Bureau of Meteorology put the chance of an El Niño at 70%, which would be the first outing for the climate system since 2016. We’re also expecting an update from America’s Climate Prediction Center today – they put El Niño’s chances at 90% back in May. If we do get a visit from the climate pattern, it’s likely to mean less rain and snow but more frost, and a heightened risk of coral bleaching and bushfires later in the year. It’ll also be one of the drivers behind those record-breaking global average temperatures we heard about a few weeks ago. The upshot if you’re out and about? Pack light, but also warm, but also sunscreen, and don’t forget a brolly. And please don’t get struck by lightning…