The Squiz

Counting is underway in the Solomon Islands election, with global observers saying the result could be one of the most consequential in the Pacific nation’s history. The poll is the first since the country’s PM Manasseh Sogavare signed a controversial security agreement with China, and he’s being challenged by rivals who’d rather have closer ties with Australia and our allies. The result could take weeks to be clear…

So why is it such a big deal for Oz?

Sogavare first got a lot of international attention back in 2019 when he switched diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China. He then caused an enormous stir in 2022 when he signed an agreement with Beijing allowing it to access Honiara’s ports and send in troops in the event of domestic unrest. At the time, our Government said it was “deeply disappointed” and the US said it was a “shadowy” deal that was a “concerning precedent for the wider Pacific region”. Up until then, Australia and New Zealand had been the Solomons’ key security partners with a long history of supporting them with military and police backup. That includes the 14-year mission to help calm/keep a lid on ethnic violence which started in 2003.

Ok what’s gonna happen?

Thanks for believing we’d know, but this is a tough one to call. There are 50 seats in the country’s parliament and it’s not likely that any party will get an outright majority, meaning there could be political wrangling to form a coalition…  In 2019 it took 6 weeks from polling day until the government was locked in. Sogavare’s main opponents – including former opposition leader Mathew Wale and MP Peter Kenilorea Jr – have been scathing of the Beijing deal and have run hard on issues like health. Pacific observers are hoping there’s no violence in the aftermath of the election because there is a question about whether Sogavare would call in Chinese police to restore order. Australia, Fiji, and NZ have sent army and police to help provide security for voting day. So you can bet many people in high places are watching things closely…