THE SQUIZ
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin but says he plans to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping because “it will be beneficial for our countries and for security in the world”. On Friday, China released a 12-point plan to end the war in Ukraine and called for a comprehensive ceasefire (aka suspending all aspects of the fighting). From there, the plan urges an end to Western sanctions against Russia, establishing humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians, and the resumption of trade, including the export of Ukrainian grain. China also gave a thumbs down to the threat or use of nuclear weapons. Russia has welcomed the plan, and even though experts say it covers what China has said before, Zelensky has cautiously welcomed China’s interest in peace. 

SOUNDS LIKE A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT…
Not according to US President Joe Biden. His response: “Putin’s applauding it, so how could it be any good?” It follows a week of Chinese engagement with Russia – efforts one analyst says are focused on “rescuing President Putin by arranging some kind of face-saving peace deal”. And global divisions over the biggest conflict in Europe since WWII are deep… G20 Finance Ministers – aka those managing the world’s largest economies – failed to agree on a closing statement following a weekend summit in India that condemned the invasion “in the strongest terms”. And at the United Nations General Assembly, a vote condemning Russia passed with 141 nations of the 193 supporting the resolution. Amongst the 32 nations refusing to vote were India, China and South Africa. And included in the 7 nations to vote against it was Russia (of course…), Belarus, North Korea and Syria.

AND WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THE BATTLEGROUND?
There has been talk of a Russian resurgence as they head into spring – but the latest assessment from Western officials is that its capabilities have been significantly run down over the last 12 months. If it can muster a new push, analysts say it will not be like the early days of the invasion when Russia came at Ukraine from the north, south and east by air, sea and on the ground. As for Ukraine, its fighting capabilities have increased significantly with sophisticated weapons and Western training. That includes 200 recruits who finished a UK-based training program, including Aussie soldiers/trainers since last month – they shook hands with King Charles at a ceremony on Friday.