THE SQUIZ

US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin will talk via video conference in the middle of this week over concerns that Russia is set to invade Ukraine. Russia has deployed armoured vehicles, electronic warfare systems and 94,000 troops along its shared border with Ukraine over the last couple of months – the largest massing of Russian forces on its borders since it annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Russia says they are there for military exercises and has dismissed concerns as “alarmist”, but US officials and European leaders fear a “large scale” attack on Ukraine is coming.

WHAT’S THAT ABOUT?

Yeah, let’s go back a little… In 2014, Ukraine’s Russian-friendly president was driven from power following mass protests. Russia denies it, but it’s widely accepted that Russia retaliated by backing a separatist insurgency that broke out in Ukraine’s east. During the fighting, you would recall that MH17 was downed by a missile system that belonged to a Russian brigade killing all 283 passengers, including 27 Aussies. A peace agreement was brokered in 2015 where Ukraine was to grant autonomy to the pro-Russian rebel regions – but things are far from settled… Ukraine says the separatists keep violating the ceasefire agreement, and Russia has accused Ukraine of failing to give the rebel regions freedom. To the here and now, Russia is said to be livid with the idea that Ukraine is getting close to NATO, which would push Western Europe’s and America’s security interests too far east for Russia’s comfort.

HOW DOES THIS END?

The hope is that will become clearer this week. Putin might outline his intentions when he talks to Biden on Tuesday (local), but many doubt he’ll be forthcoming. We know that Putin has said that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” so you can understand why many think an invasion is on the cards… And he’s said that Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO represent a “red line” for Moscow. On Saturday, Biden warned he would make it “very, very difficult” for Putin to “go ahead and do what people are worried he may do”. So watch this space…