THE SQUIZ

NATO’s leaders have started talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, overnight in the first of 2 days of high-powered decision-making. The military alliance between 29 European countries, plus the US and Canada, presents a united military front to deter attacks against any single member. One major question heading into this week’s summit was whether NATO’s leaders would commit to admitting Ukraine as soon as Russia’s invasion ends, which is something its President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked for. But the news overnight is that NATO will give Ukraine its membership card only “when allies agree and conditions are met”… meaning Ukraine won’t have a guaranteed timeline for entry into the alliance.

WHY WOULDN’T NATO ADMIT UKRAINE?

Guaranteeing Ukraine membership could mean that Russia extends its war to prevent NATO from growing, and could also cause an escalation of the conflict. US President Joe Biden was against guaranteed membership, saying last week that Ukraine isn’t ready and Russia’s invasion needs to end before America would reconsider. He said: “If the war is going on, then we’re all in war.” There are also more immediate matters NATO leaders are discussing, including how to keep Ukraine supplied with ammunition. Reports say that Vladimir Putin is trying to outlast NATO’s support of Ukraine, so another challenge for the leaders meeting in Vilnius is to agree on how they’ll continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammo for as long as they’re needed. It’s a fine needle to thread…

ANYTHING ELSE ON THE AGENDA?Yep – progressing Sweden’s membership… In a middle finger to Putin, Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. Finland officially joined in April this year. But Sweden’s application was almost derailed when Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened to block it at the last minute. Turkey had previously delayed after accusing Sweden of hosting Kurdish militants, but Erdoğan’s surprise demand this week was making Sweden’s NATO membership dependent on Turkey’s admittance into the European Union. Erdoğan soon backed down – speculation points to the US agreeing to sell Turkey the F-16 fighter jets they want. So many twists and turns…