THE SQUIZ

Russian investigators overnight said genetic testing confirmed that Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on board the plane that crashed north of Moscow. A Russian government spokesperson also said the suggestion that the crash was ordered by President Vladimir Putin was an “absolute lie”. The other big move over the weekend was Putin’s order to Wagner’s mercenary fighters to sign an oath of allegiance. The pledge includes a promise to strictly follow the orders of Russia’s military commanders/senior leaders and a commitment to “courageously defend” the nation’s independence and constitution. A move to make Wagner’s 25,000+ fighters – mainly made up of former prisoners – sign Russian Army contracts by 1 July was one of the reasons behind the June mutiny led by Prighozin. Since then, there have been questions about whether Wagner fighters – now based in Belarus, Syria and Africa – will return to the battlefields of Ukraine. 

IS THAT LIKELY?

Not according to analysts, at least in the short term – and they say Wagner’s future further afield isn’t certain either… The group has become an integral arm of Russian foreign policy by propping up governments in Syria and Africa in exchange for valuable mining rights. One expert said those arrangements are set to continue “perhaps no longer under the name of Wagner, but with a new head loyal to the Kremlin.” As for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while mercenary troops may not return anytime soon, quite a bit has been said since last week about Prigozhin’s impact on the war. Specifically, Wagner’s role in the battle for Bakhmut in Ukraine’s east – one of the bloodiest of the war – which drained Kyiv of resources ahead of the spring/summer counteroffensive. About 20,000 Wagner troops died in that effort, but it gave Russia time to regroup and made it hard for Ukraine to build momentum. 

WHAT IS THE WORLD SAYING? 

Even before the genetic confirmation, the official American/British view was that Prigozhin “likely” died last week, and unnamed officials say a bomb on board his private jet was the probable cause of the crash. As for what the chapter means for Putin, Western officials say it makes him “short-term stronger, long-term weaker.” That’s because, sure, he’s forcing his top officials to “walk the line”, but they say his extreme measures are eroding his standing with Russia’s elite and the general public. Still, there are nations happy to align with Russia… Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia will join BRICS to add more voices to the group that serves as a counterweight to the US and its allies. Last week’s meeting of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa agreed to the group’s expansion. Analyst Margaret Myers said it’s “more symbolic than anything” as a show of support for “a recalibration of the global order.”