THE SQUIZ

If you woke up on Saturday morning, saw there was an armed uprising in Russia challenging President Vladimir Putin’s government, and thought, “huh?”, we hear you… Beginning on Russia’s Friday morning, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, openly defied Russia’s military establishment and claimed the invasion of Ukraine was conducted on false pretences. On Saturday, the private army under Prigozhin’s control overtook a military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, in Russia’s south. In an address to the nation, Putin vowed retribution over what he called “a stab in the back of our country and our people”. Prighozin’s forces were on their way to Moscow when Putin’s mate/the leader of neighbouring Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, intervened and brokered a deal that called it off and allowed amnesty for Prigozhin and his fighters.

WAIT, WHO IS PRIGOZHIN?

Glad you asked because he’s got an interesting backstory… Prigozhin befriended Putin while selling hot dogs on the streets of Moscow in the 1990s, and as Putin climbed to power, he brought Prigozhin with him. In recent years, Prigozhin has essentially been doing the Kremlin’s dirty work, like running online troll farms and fighting in warzones in the Middle East and Africa. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought Prigozhin out of the shadows when Wagner became central to Russia’s war effort. Prigozhin recruited fighters from Russian prisons, and the group has been at the front of the bloodiest battles in Ukraine. While fighting for Bakhmut, Prigozhin openly took on Russia’s military leaders, who he accused of misleading Russians about the war. The weekend’s uprising began after Prigozhin accused Russia’s military of attacking and killing his fighters, and one of Prigozhin’s demands was that Russia’s Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu be fired.

IS THIS A BIG DEAL?

Experts reckon Prigozhin’s defiance was the most serious threat to Putin’s power in his 23 years at the top – and that the danger isn’t over yet. As the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said, the uprising has shown “real cracks” in Putin’s authority and raised “all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address”. As some pro-Ukrainian commentators put it: before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia believed it had the second most powerful army in the world after the US – but with Wagner mercenaries so easily defying the military, it appears that Russia has the second most powerful army in Russia… As for what the uprising means for Russia’s war on Ukraine, it’s hard to say right now – but some experts have said that Russia’s effort will be weakened if Wagner’s fighters aren’t absorbed into the army.