THE SQUIZ

Ooh la la… French voters go to the polls on Sunday for the first round of voting in its presidential election. Assuming no one wins a majority this round, the top 2 candidates will runoff in a first past the post race in a fortnight. At the end of it, the winner gets a 5-year term and the job of unifying a cranky nation on one hand while having an opportunity to be a big player in Europe’s greatest security crisis since World War II on the other. 

WHO’S WHO?

There are 12 presidential candidates, but there are 2 to note:

• The President is Emmanuel Macron. Now 44yo, he became France’s youngest president in 2017 in the first election he ever faced. His party is La Republique En Marche (LREM) – it’s pro-Europe and pro-business. A sitting French president hasn’t won reelection for 20 years, and the word “hated” comes up when analysts talk about Macron’s – but the polls say he’s had a war-inspired popularity bump. 
• Macron’s main challenger is Marine Le Pen, the veteran far-right winger from National Rally. This will be her 3rd go and she’s again campaigning for a harder line on immigration, and this time on cost of living issues. A fan of Russian President Vladimir Putin, a photo of them together has mysteriously disappeared from her campaign materials… 

HOW’S THE RACE SHAPING UP? Macron is favourite, but he has a lot of baggage… In 2018, he put a green tax on fuel and it led to the Yellow Vest uprising – it was 60 consecutive weeks of big protests against economic hardship and inequality. Add to the mix cuts to welfare while implementing measures his critics say benefited the rich, and gas price hikes of 35% over the past year, he’s an unpopular guy with many voters. And while Macron has been deeply involved in diplomatic efforts to prevent/end Russia’s war on Ukraine, Le Pen has been campaigning on cost of living issues – and the polls show her numbers are up. So the vote could be more tightly fought than the last time the pair went head-to-head in 2017. Macron beat Le Pen in 2017 by 66.1% to 33.9% in the runoff – this time the polls are pointing to a Macron win, but by 53.5% to 46.5%. Giddy-up…